A market is a question.
"Fed cuts rates in June?"
YESNO
$0$0.50$1
$0.42=42%chance it happens
A YES share pays $1 if it happens, $0 if not. Its price is the probability the crowd gives it.
Engine online · 196 days of published results since March 11, 2026
Arbitrage the future.
Neural Bet is an autonomous arbitrage engine. It finds price gaps between Polymarket and Kalshi and takes the same position on both sides in 108 ms. It never predicts an outcome: it locks the gap.
Example · how a gap is locked
108 ms
"Fed cuts rates in June?"
Filled
PolymarketYES
$0.42
Filled
KalshiNO
$0.55
YES $0.42NO $0.55
cost $0.97always pays $1.00
+$0.03locked, YES or NO
- 1Ingest
- 2Match
- 3Price
- 4Execute
108msto take both sides of a gap
24/7the engine runs day and night
0predictions: the gap is locked, not guessed
196dayspublished one by one, negative days included
non-custodial: your funds stay in your vault, never with us
01Start here
Prediction markets, explained in 90 seconds.
No finance background needed. Three ideas are enough to understand exactly what the engine does, and why it never needs to predict anything.
Two venues, two prices.
"Fed cuts rates in June?"
Polymarket$0.42
Kalshi$0.45
$0$0.50$1$0.00
3¢ gap
Polymarket and Kalshi price the same question separately. For a few minutes, they disagree.
Buy both sides for less than $1.
YES $0.42NO $0.55always pays $1.00
cost $0.97
+$0.03 locked, YES or NO
YES on one venue, NO on the other: one of them always pays $1. Pay less than $1 in total, and the difference is yours.
See it for yourself
Choose the price gap between the two platforms and an amount. Whatever the market decides, the result is the same.
Price gap between the two platforms
Amount
Fees and slippage (1.3%) are already deducted.
You keep, whatever happens
+$53
The engine would take this one
If the market ends YES+$53
If the market ends NO+$53
Same result either way. That is what "delta-neutral" means: the engine earns the gap, not a guess.
Show the calculation
Pairs bought3 093 (YES $0.42 + NO $0.55 = $0.97)
Payout at resolution$1.00 × 3 093 = $3 093
Gross gain+$93 (+3.09%)
Fees and slippage−$39 (1.31%)
You keep+$53 (+1.78%)
02How it works
Four steps. Under one second.
Delta-neutral by construction: the engine wins whichever side resolves. Follow one opportunity from the order book to the locked profit.
108 msExecution window
01 · Ingest
Read every order book, 40 times a second.
A persistent, low-latency mirror of every active market on Polymarket and Kalshi. Full depth, no polling: the engine listens to the venues' live streams.
Round-trip 24 ms · 31 ms · 1 204 markets tracked
02 · Match
Recognise identical markets.
A language-model pipeline maps both venues to canonical contracts, so "Trump wins 2028" on Polymarket and its Kalshi twin are treated as the same question, priced differently.
Canonical id mkt_a9f2 · PM + KAL
03 · Price
Compute the true edge after frictions.
Fees, slippage, settlement risk, USDC/USD conversion: everything is priced in. If the net gap clears the threshold, the engine fires.
Gross 4.12% → net 2.81%
04 · Execute
Take both sides. Atomically.
Buy YES on the cheaper venue and NO on the other, simultaneously, within a single 108 ms window. If one leg fails, the other is unwound instantly.
YES 0.42 + NO 0.55 → locked +$184.20 · 108 ms
Under the hood
Non-custodial
Your funds stay yours.
Same model as Morpho vaults: deposits go into a non-custodial vault. The engine can allocate them to its strategies, never withdraw them. You follow your position in real time and withdraw whenever you want.
Capacity
Up to $5M, same engine.
Position sizing adapts to book depth. We never push through the book, and never ask you to.
Transparency
Every day, published.
Your capital is tracked in real time in your client space, and the track record is updated every day, negative days included. Nothing is smoothed, nothing is hidden.
03Performance
The track record. Day by day.
Net performance after fees: exactly what is credited to clients. Every day since March 11, 2026, including the 4 negative ones.
Growth of $10,000
$21 984
▲ +119.84% · 196 days · since March 11, 2026
Profits are credited daily and not reinvested. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Positive days
98.0%
192 of 196 days
Maximum drawdown
−0.28%
since inception
Average per day
+0.61%
best day +1.30%
Longest positive streak
117
consecutive days
Monthly returns
Every month since launch has closed positive. Below, each square is one day: hover it to read the result.
+14.7%Mar
+21.1%Apr
+15.6%May
+22.7%Jun
+22.6%Jul
+13.7%Aug
+9.5%Sepin progress
negative daypositive day, from small to large
04FAQ
The questions people ask before they write to us.
Straight answers. If yours is missing, just ask.
Your question is not here? Write to us: a human replies in under 20 minutes.
Write to usDo you hold my funds?
No. Neural Bet works like a Morpho vault: your deposit goes into a non-custodial vault, not into a Neural Bet account. The engine is only allowed to allocate the funds to its arbitrage strategies, never to withdraw them. You stay the owner of your position, follow it in real time and can withdraw whenever you want.
What happens when there is no arbitrage opportunity?
The engine sits flat. We would rather earn zero than force a bad execution. On a calm day, it completes fewer than 100 arbitrages; on a volatile day, more than 200.
How do you charge?
Only on profits. Neural Bet keeps 50% of the profits generated, and nothing else: no subscription, no management fee, no hidden cost. If the engine makes no profit, you pay nothing. Every figure on this site is already net of this share.
Is this legal where I live?
Yes. Neural Bet operates within a fully legal framework. We do not accept US clients (citizens or residents of the United States), nor persons subject to US sanctions. Rules vary from one country to another: write to us and we will review your jurisdiction with you.
05 · Get access
Stop watching inefficiencies disappear without you.
We are running at scale and opening a limited number of additional accounts for Q4 2026. Write to us: a human replies in under 20 minutes.
Write to us
No pitch deck. No calendar link.